swine flu, possible outbreak in the future or just hype of the time?

Well, it's reported that 35 thousand get killed by normal flu, and certain scientists are expecting 60 thousand by swine flu, in England alone.

I have no doubt more are gonna be there, because a certain amount aren't declared, but the same thing is going to happen with swine flu.

 

In order to predict a death toll for any disease to any accuracy, data would be needed from previous outbreaks. As this is more or less a new form of the flu and at the moment there is no data to base predictions on I would imagine that those scientists have pulled that figure out of their asses. For the record those same scientists also said that the death toll could be about 3500.

The odd thing about swine flu in the UK is that it is spreading more rapidly than anywhere else on earth, no one seems to be asking why this should be.

 

I also thought about the possibility that someone might have created the virus in the first place but since it was not reported in the news, then it's just baseless assumptions. It might help if the scientists would really take a closer look at the virus some more.

 

So it's not really as deadly as it looks huh? Because here our health minister didn't concern this outbreak very much and I've seen people in local forums complaining about that.

Anyway, that created virus conspiracy theory sure is pretty creepy. 20th Century Boys anyone? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_century_boys

 

This is not a lab created disease. Why? because it is too random and too weak to be a weapon. This is not crack cocaine.

 

In my country, the H1N1 has replaced the common flu...zzzz

 

Yeah I know that this is very unlikely and even the motive (if any) is real different. Just thinking the possibilities in the far future. This world is really unstable right now.

 

So, this virus is spread from human-to-human, right? So, if a certain place, lets say an island inhabited by people, will not be affected by the AH1N1, unless they are visited by a person with that virus, is that right?

If so, if a certain place, example like Racoon City from the RE series, can be a good example in the real world? Like, we contain the virus in a certain place then just exterminate any person who has that disease? I know its not plausible but is that a fool-proof solution?

 

@1prinnydood: Who said it would be used as a weapon , I meant completely the opposite, it could be sued to bring a planet together and draw attention away from other major concerns going on. Therefore it's weakness as you put it, could be a good thing, not killing many people, just enough to draw attention away.

And as for scientists pulling a figure out of their arse.. Scientists have been pulling crap out of their arses for years, it's what's given us some of our greatist inventions and acheivements and cures.

@damanali: No, if it's airborne it doesn't mean you have to breath it, theoretically, you exhale gases and your body gives off gases when decomposing, eergo airborne.

 

1prinnydood must have commented on the 20th Century Boys plot. There, the virus (ebola strain) both used as a weapon and to unite the world in the villain's hands. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

I mean, is the AH1N1 a airborne disease? For example, you live in Mexico, can the AH1N1 disease go to other places like the USA, just thru air? Like if we close all port of entry in Mexico like borders, airports, seaports, tunnels, can the AH1N1 disease still go out of that country?

Cause what i know about the AH1N1 virus is that it transfers to other countries because their nationals/citizens visited mexico where the AH1N1 virus started, and when they returned home, they shared the virus to other people in their area.

So, thats why I was asking if its airborne or not, cause if its not, containment of a certain area with the AH1N1 virus, will stop the virus from spreading. Here in our country, we dont contain those areas, like if the Virus is in Manila we dont shut close Manila, so it spreads to other areas like the provinces Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija...etc...

 

Thanks for clearing that up. So that means, if i was a leader of a country and i found the AH1N1 in a certain place, i could just seal the area and just let them recuperate in that area while preventing it to spread out of that area.

Or if i was Hitler or Kim Jong-il, i would just shoot all those infected and just burn the place with their bodies. And prevent it from spreading.

On a more sensible way, why is it i dont see a place being contained? I know we closed the school, but the infected person roams free, isn't it a bit weird?

 

Agreed.

If we can't keep out illegal imigrants, from our own countries, then who do we suppose to contain an area.

(My comment about imigrants was an exmaple, just in case someone takes offense)

 

As things stand and given the mortality rate of this flu, I think it is probably good that it is spreading so well. I base this idea on two possibly incorrect assumptions: That the potential for mutation of this flu strain is high and that the antiviral drugs used to aid recovery are not depleting our bodies own defence mechanism, namely the production of viable antibodies.

If my assumptions are correct then large numbers of people who have survived this infection may develop a better immune response to any possible mutation of the virus, this depends entirely on the form of mutation. Humans are very good at adapting immune response to viral disease, unlike things like ants which take at least one generation to build immunity.

Like any flu this is a killer disease, transmission rates may seem higher than the more common strains(especially in the U.K) but I think that the high transmission rate when compared to common flues can, in part, be explained by considering that many people who have had a flu in the past do not report a new bout of the illness or need to seek the aid of a doctor. Given that this is a new viral disease it makes sense that people are much more concerned for their health as they have never been through this particular affliction in their past. Of course this only explains a part of the transmission rate, it may be that this flu is better at jumping hosts than other strains. Time will tell; and we are very lucky to have that time, as this disease could have been much much worse, think 'Spanish' flu(but that one was, without a doubt, man-made).

 

i think the entire thing is blown out of proportion. as of this post 700 people have died since April, all of the news here is stating that 100,000-500,000 people die annually from the seasonal common flu. It's a new virus that has been pretty much predictable give or take a couple of cases, just like any other virus.

The severe cases that have been reported were ones that went undiagnosed, and it;s stated that if you get treatment for it in it's early stages you'll make a full recovery.

People just need to calm down, imagine what the world would be like if every death from the seasonal flu was reported